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On the current state of affairs

· 2 min read

Writing this down just as a point of record for where my thinking is at right now, and on what I'm basing my decisions in the near future.

Premise 1: US fascist administration is not going to step down willingly

Consequently, I see 3 possible paths:

  1. uprising and civil war - if enough people are willing to fight for their future
  2. administration deploys excessive violence and keeps population under control
  3. shitshow drags on for 4 years - if the administration slows down to steer between the first two options

US may join russia as an ally in the war in options 2 and 3. If that happens, as well as in option 1, international financial transactions with US are likely to stop working. Which is why I'm disposing of the assets I have there while I still can.

Premise 2: russia is likely to attack more countries soon

With US out of the equation (or worse, siding with russia), they're going to be a lot less reluctant to attack other countries, including NATO members. Danish intelligence report linked above projects that russia will be able to do that in 2 years, and wage large-scale war in Europe in 5 years.

However, I expect that chaos and violence will start sooner than that. There will be no official declaration of war and initially it will be unclear that it's russians.