On the current state of affairs
Writing this down just as a point of record for where my thinking is at right now, and on what I'm basing my decisions in the near future.
Premise 1: US fascist administration is not going to step down willingly
Consequently, I see 3 possible paths:
- uprising and civil war - if enough people are willing to fight for their future
- administration deploys excessive violence and keeps population under control
- shitshow drags on for 4 years - if the administration slows down to steer between the first two options
US may join russia as an ally in the war in options 2 and 3. If that happens, as well as in option 1, international financial transactions with US are likely to stop working. Which is why I'm disposing of the assets I have there while I still can.
Premise 2: russia is likely to attack more countries soon
- Estonian intelligence: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/intelligence-warns-russia-preparing-for-war-with-nato/
- Danish intelligence: https://www.fe-ddis.dk/globalassets/fe/dokumenter/2025/trusselsvurderinger/-20250209_opdateret_vurdering_af_truslen_fra_rusland_mod--.pdf
- One of the numerous incidents of russian ships hanging out around undersea cables: https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-sub-secretly-watched-russian-spy-ship-near-undersea-cables-2025-1
With US out of the equation (or worse, siding with russia), they're going to be a lot less reluctant to attack other countries, including NATO members. Danish intelligence report linked above projects that russia will be able to do that in 2 years, and wage large-scale war in Europe in 5 years.
However, I expect that chaos and violence will start sooner than that. There will be no official declaration of war and initially it will be unclear that it's russians.